An important new report was launched at the ASHMAustralasian Society for HIV Medicine. The peak Australasian organisation representing the medical and health sector in HIV/AIDS and related areas. Australasian HIV/AIDS conference in October. A joint project of NAPWHA and the National Centre in HIV EpidemiologyThe branch of medical science that deals with the study of incidence and distribution and control of a disease in a population. and ClinicalPertaining to or founded on observation and treatment of participants, as distinguished from theoretical or basic science. Research, the report is the first in a series looking at the shifts and trends in Australia’s positive population. It forecasts the numbers and clinical needs of people living with HIV over the next decade and will assist clinical and service providers plan for the future.
Currently the total number of people living with diagnosed HIV in Australia is estimated to be 20,956. By 2020, this number is predicted to increase by 36% to 28,422. Note: this does not account for the 10-20% of HIV infections that are thought to be undiagnosed.
New South Wales is the state with the highest population of people living with HIV, with 9,924 people in 2010, estimated to increase to 11,721 by 2020.
The population of people living with HIV is mostly found in the central areas of the major capital cities, on the coast between Sydney and Brisbane and in far North Queensland.
Tasmania and Queensland have experienced the largest relative increases in HIV diagnoses over the past 10 years.
The simulations predict that over the next decade, increasing numbers of people living with HIV will live outside major metropolitan areas.
Statistical regions with the largest expected increase in HIV positive populations are expected to be based mainly in Queensland and Victoria.
In 2010, females make up an estimated 9% of the population living with HIV. By 2020, they are predicted to make up 10.5% of the total.
Western Australia and the Northern Territory have the highest proportion of females in their positive populations, being 18.2 % and 17.5% respectively.
The population of people living with HIV has aged substantially. In 1985 the proportion of the population aged over 55 years was 2.7%. By 2000 it was 11.2%. In 2010, it was 25.7% and by 2020 it is expected to be 44.3%.
The total potential demand for antiretroviralA medication or other substance which is active against retroviruses such as HIV. therapy (those eligible to consider treatment) is currently estimated to be 18,362 people and will be 25,580 in 2020 (an increase of 39%). The estimated number of people eligible for second-line and subsequent lines of therapies is expected to increase from 7,050 and 5,489 in 2010 to approximately 8,355 (19% increase) and 11,385 (107% increase) in 2020.
To see the full report